The estimate of your pension at PDN on your UPS shows you the effects of any future economic growth or downturns. This is presented in an image with three arrows that start together from one point. The bottommost amount is not an estimate. This is the pension you have accrued so far at PDN. The top three are an estimate of the pension you are likely to receive in various situations.
You see the estimate of your pension with three arrows that start together from one point. An example is given below.
The bottommost amount
The bottommost amount is the pension you have accrued so far. If you were to stop accruing pension now, this is the gross amount that you would receive per year for as long as long as you live. This amount is calculated on mijnpensioenoverzicht.nl as though your pension starts at the same time as your statutory old-age pension (AOW).
The upper amounts
At the top you see three amounts. These amounts are an estimate of the pension you are likely to receive in various situations. An important assumption for all three amounts is that you continue to work until the PDN retirement age, and you continue to accrue pension within the current pension scheme. If you stop working earlier, your pension will be lower.
Many different future scenarios have been devised by economists. In one future scenario things go well as far as interest rates, investments and price increases are concerned. In another future scenario, the outlook is less optimistic. All pension funds and insurers make their calculations using these same future scenarios. We have calculated how high your pension will be in these future scenarios.
If so, mijnpensioenoverzicht.nl also presents an estimate of your pension in the event of growth or downturns in the coming ten years. You can see this estimate as soon as you start receiving your statutory old-age pension (AOW). Until you receive your statutory old-age pension (AOW), you will see your pension as though this starts at the same time as your statutory old-age pension.
If the expected end result is lower than the amount that you receive now, this means that economists are expecting the prices to increase and the purchasing power of your pension to fall. This does not mean that you will receive less, but you will not be able to purchase as much with the same pension. With the anticipated end result, you can calculate how much you will be able to purchase with your pension in ten years.
We need to adapt the rules we use to make estimates each year. We then take into account the financial situation at PDN at that time and the economic expectations in the future. That’s why the estimates change annually. If you compare the 2021 estimate with 2020’s, you can see that this is lower. That’s mainly because the likelihood of future pension increases has reduced as a consequence of falling interest rates (or expected interest rates). In addition, the accrual rate has been changed from 1.738% to 1.4%. This change will have a negative impact on the pension you can expect to receive. As the anticipated pension is lower, the scenarios are also lower.
You can find more information about the change in the pension scheme on our website under ‘Pension scheme 2021-2022’.
You can use the middle amount to estimate whether the expected pension is enough for your living expenses. The other two amounts indicate the direction in which your pension can develop if things go very well or very badly with the economy.
Your pension will never suddenly be equal to the amount on the left. If the economy takes a downturn for a longer period, the expected pension (the middle amount) will reduce gradually. It is therefore good to check your pension every now and then (for instance each year). You can then see the direction in which your pension is developing.
In 5% of the calculated future scenarios, the calculation resulted in an amount lower than the predicted downturn amount. The likelihood that you will receive the lowest amount is very small. The likelihood that you will receive more than the lowest amount is 95%.
The average outcome can be seen the center at the top. There is currently a 50% chance that your pension will end up being lower. And there is currently a 50% chance that your pension will end up being higher. The likelihood that you will receive exactly this amount is very small. The main purpose is for you to see the direction in which your pension can develop if things go well or badly with the economy for a longer period.
In 5% of the calculated future scenarios, the calculation resulted in an amount higher than the amount predicted if the economy does well. The likelihood that you will receive the highest amount is very small. The likelihood that you will receive less than the highest amount is currently 95%.
If the economy does well it means that the economy is growing much better than expected. It is a possible future scenario in which the returns on investments are higher than expected. Interest rates increase and prices do not increase or even fall. We do not know whether this situation will occur. But if this situation does occur, the right arrow shows what effect this will have on your pension.
An economic downturn is when the economy does much worse than expected. It is a possible future scenario in which the returns on investments are lower than expected. Interest rates are lower than expected and prices increase more sharply than expected. We do not know whether this situation will occur. But if this situation does occur, the left arrow shows what effect this will have on your pension.
Yes, there is a chance that this could happen. The three amounts are calculated based on 2000 possible future scenarios. We have calculated your pension in every scenario. In 5% of these scenarios, your pension ends up being lower than the amount you see on the left. In 5% of the scenarios, your pension ends up being higher than the amount you see on the right. Right now, it looks as though there is a 90% chance that your pension will end up at an amount between the amounts on the left and right.
The government has decided to only show what will happen to your own pension if the economic results are favorable or adverse.